Governors' Wind Energy Coalition

Democratic wins in Texas and Alaska would test the size of the party’s tent on energy issues.

Next week’s midterm elections could usher in the revival of a rare type of politician: Democratic senators representing states rich in fossil fuels and Republicans.

Moderate Democrats view potential wins from Senate candidates like James Talarico of Texas and Mary Peltola of Alaska as a way to broaden the party’s tent on energy issues heading into what’s expected to be a competitive 2028 election cycle. Either candidate winning office in what have for decades been Republican-led states would be a major electoral upset — and potentially challenge the sway environmental groups have had with the party in recent decades.

Peltola “will stand up to anyone to increase Alaskan energy production,” her campaign spokesperson, Harry Child, said in a statement. During her tenure in the House, she pushed for the Biden administration to approve the $8 billion Willow project, a large-scale oil drilling proposal in Alaska, despite pushback to the development from other Democrats.

If elected, Talarico has similarly pledged to defend Texas’ oil and gas industry, including potentially from his own party. But that pledge could be tested by Democratic efforts to bring oil and gas executives to testify before lawmakers on Capitol Hill next Congress regarding rising fuel prices.

Talarico’s campaign did not respond to a question from POLITICO on whether he would support the subpoenaing of oil and gas executives in the next Congress.

Their potential arrival in Washington comes as candidates heading into 2028 are searching for a winning energy message that simultaneously acknowledges voters’ affordability and climate concerns, said former Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, a significant oil-producing state.

“One thing the Democratic Party has come to the realization [on] is that you aren’t going to get good climate policy unless you have affordable energy policy,” said Heitkamp, who left office after losing her reelection bid in 2018. “You have to be fuel agnostic.”

Heitkamp, along with former Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, are among the alumni of what had been at one time a relatively robust group: Senate Democrats who represented states with heavy fossil fuel production. Successive elections — and the Democrats’ hewing closer to environmental groups as a voting base ’ have whittled down that group’s membership severely in recent decades.

Energy policy during that time became more stratified along party lines. Democrats more frequently went to bat for renewable energy sources like wind and solar, whereas the Republican party brand became more closely affiliated with fossil fuel production.

During the Biden administration, Democrats pressed an energy agenda bolstering renewables and electric vehicles as a means to combat climate change, namely through legislation like the 2022 party-line Inflation Reduction Act. The law called for billions of dollars in investments in renewable energy and electric vehicles, though Republicans have spent the past two years dismantling the largesse.

Manchin, a long-time Democrat who helped craft that legislation, turned independent in 2024 after taking heat from some members of his former party and environmental interest groups during negotiations surrounding the 2022 climate law. He declined to comment for this story.

Manchin decided not to seek reelection to the Senate in 2024. And Landrieulost her reelection bid in 2014 to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who himself is headed for the exits after losing his primary earlier this year.

But while clean energy remains popular, since 2020, the share of Americans who support the U.S. prioritizing renewables development over fossil fuels has fallen by more than 20 percent, according to the Pew Research Center.

Both Peltola and Talarico have said they would like to see Congress restore federal tax credits for renewables, which were rolled back in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. LCV’s Action Fund has criticized the reversal of those credits in attack ads on Republicans.

Some Democrats view potential Peltola or Talarico wins as a way for the party to shore up the party’s “all of the above” energy credentials.

“All of the above is back, baby,” said Tré Easton, vice president for public affairs at Searchlight Institute, a Democratic think tank.

If they win in November, Talarico or Peltola wouldn’t necessarily be the only Senate Democrats from oil-producing states. Both Colorado and New Mexico, which rank high in the U.S. in crude production, are fully represented by Democratic senators in Washington who generally support oil and gas but have also endorsed more regulations on the industry than their Republican counterparts.

Talarico’s variance from other Democratic party members on oil and gas issues may take place largely on a more granular level rather than on hot-button issues, according to Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners.

“Democrats from producer states have often shown a more nuanced position on sort of the mainstream components of oil and gas regulation, and even if they support a climate agenda, even if they support transition technologies,” Book said. “They often look for pragmatic solutions when they talk about sort of the nuts and bolts of how the industry will really operate.”

Still, when it comes to pro-fossil fuel Senate Democrats from red states, Talarico or Peltola would be joining a caucus of zero.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who is more supportive of the oil and gas industry than most in his party, said he believes there is room in the Democratic party for more pro-oil Democrats. But he added he hopes that Democratic leaders would do more to protect Talarico or Peltola to prevent a Manchin-like situation happening to either of them.

“I hope the Senate understands what happened to Joe Manchin and how he was attacked by the climate folks,” Cuellar told POLITICO. “I don’t think the Senate leaders gave him enough support. … I hope they learn lessons of the past.”

Environmental groups so far seem to be holding any fire when it comes to Peltola and Talarico’s positions on oil and gas.

“Democrats have really hammered home that they are going to work to deliver affordability for families and to stand up to the big polluters who are making record profits while we all suffer, and I think that that is a strong and unifying theme across these various races,” said Matthew Davis, vice president of federal policy at the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund, when asked about Talarico and Peltola.

The Democratic-affiliatied LCV has given Peltola, who was in the House for just over two years, a 73% lifetime score on the environment.

But environmental groups’ political power has waned since the 2024 presidential election.

Following significant 2024 party losses, some Democrats have felt that the Biden administration didn’t do enough to play up record oil and gas production, ceding an energy dominance message to Republicans that President Donald Trump’s administration has frequently touted.

Those factors — in conjunction with the narrowing number of states this century that Democrats are competitive in — are introducing new questions over what policy the party’s candidates should pursue to be more competitive in traditionally red states, Easton of Searchlight said.

“I’m not saying that it’s going to be a panacea to get those states back into the Democratic column,” Easton said. “But I think having less hostility to the oil and gas industry, while again still treating climate change as the real and serious issue that it is, that is where more voters are.”