Texas Seeing Little Wind Power During Massive Winter Storm
The Texas grid operator is forecasting very little wind generation — a key source of power — over the weekend just as a powerful winter storm promises to prompt a surge in electricity demand.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is projecting 60% of the grid’s 40.6 gigawatts of wind capacity won’t be available on the potential risk of ice forcing turbines to halt, said Sean Kelly, chief executive officer of Amperon, a Houston-based forecaster of power demand and renewable generation.
Ercot’s projections show the buffer of spare capacity on the system may drop to 8.2% from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m. Monday when demand for power may hit a winter record of more than 84 gigawatts, according to grid data. Should such tight reserves persist, Ercot would likely need to declare a level one emergency to procure new power supplies. Meanwhile, as the storm clears up, solar should be strong Monday and Tuesday, Kelly said.
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A level one emergency is triggered when operating reserves fall below 2.5 gigawatts and aren’t expected to recover within half an hour. Doing so allows Ercot to tap certain reserves only available in emergencies, such as asking industrial users to curtail use to free up supply. A gigawatt is typically enough to supply 200,000 homes served by the grid operator.
A similar scenario took place five years ago when winter storm Uri crippled output from the one of the country’s most prolific wind generating regions in West Texas, adding to cascading failure at natural gas-fired plants and with fuel supplies.
The weekend’s storm is expected to deliver a whopper of rain, sleet and ice followed by snow over the weekend with below-freezing temperatures until midday Tuesday.
Ercot said it expects grid conditions to remain normal at this time and will continue to deploy all resources to manage the grid reliability, which in extreme conditions may include asking large industrial users or data centers to reduce consumption, according to an emailed statement. The grid operator didn’t immediately comment on wind forecasts.