‘Nothing worse’: Energy prices are closing in on GOP’s midterm chances
Relentlessly rising fuel costs are feeding inflation and threatening Republican reelection chances.
President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally for Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, on Aug. 21.Jacquelyn Martin/AP
President Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East for months has thwarted GOP plans to run on pocketbook issues this fall.
Now, with the midterm elections mere weeks away, it’s likely too late to stem the political fallout from the sustained grind of expensive energy bills that threaten to spread to other consumer prices.
More than six months into the war, the White House has no clear way to tame crude prices — which topped $100 a barrel Wednesday for the global Brent benchmark — or the diesel prices that started breaking national records last week, analysts said. While prices for gasoline and oil hit higher peaks in 2022, the pain from energy costs has become a persistent drain on voters’ wallets and could soon lead to an increase in their borrowing costs.
In the meantime, higher energy prices and tariffs are hitting GOP candidates in Michigan, Maine and Iowa particularly hard, said Republican campaign strategist Alfredo Rodriguez. Voters tend to have short-term memories, but gas station signs offer plenty of reminders, he said.
“The increasing price of diesel is going to have an effect on how voters pull the levers in those races,” Rodriguez said. “We have 56 days left until Election Day. The cake is already baked.”
The rise in oil prices driven by Iran’s constraints on oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the big reasons prices keep rising. And that inflation might push the Federal Reserve next week to do exactly what Trump doesn’t want them to do: hike interest rates.
Even if prices cool, the damage to consumers is mounting. Unless diesel and oil prices make a dramatic retreat, higher costs for everything that freight trucks carry, farm tractors harvest and heating oil warms will hit consumers and put a drag on the economy.
“They have no good options,” a former administration official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said of the president’s aides. “And, if anything, inflation may get worse because you’ll get some bleed-through from diesel, which impacts everything.”
Higher fuel prices are already creating a drag on the wider economy, said Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst at price tracking firm Gas Buddy.
“With diesel prices $2.25/gal higher than a year ago, businesses are paying $284 million more per day on diesel, while gasoline stands $1.02/gal higher than a year ago, consumers are paying $377 million more per day, adding up to a *$4.63* billion additional surcharge every week,” De Haan wrote on X.
A sharp decline in oil prices could help Republicans escape some voter anger over rising prices, though oil analysts say the odds of that happening are slim given renewed attacks in the Middle East. Otherwise, the last hope for the party may be if Trump can convince voters at this week’s GOP convention that there is a plan to ease the financial pain, said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist at Firehouse Strategies.
“We should expect Trump to talk about his attempts to make things more affordable, including his tax cuts and reducing regulations,” Conant said.
“There’s nothing worse for a president of the United States than inflation or runaway prices,” Conant said, but “voters are more sympathetic toward a problem if they think you’re trying to fix it.”
Trump met with refining industry executives last week to discuss ways to expand fuel-making capacity, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said. Fuel prices will also fall “as the U.S. continues to maintain full control of the Strait of Hormuz,” Rogers said.
“President Trump remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families,” Rogers said.
Rising diesel prices are particularly insidious for the economy because there’s no quick solution. ExxonMobil and other oil producers may drill more wells when oil prices are high, but no company has a spare fuel refinery at hand to replace those in Russia that Ukraine has destroyed as part of the war there or that are trapped on the wrong side of Hormuz.
Farm country is feeling the sting. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who is facing a surprisingly tight race for reelection this November, said higher fuel prices are “a real concern” for his constituents. At $5.51 a gallon, the average price of diesel in the state is $2 more than it was last year.
“It’s not a political concern as much as just a real concern,” Marshall said in an interview. “Look, my neighbors, the people I go to church with, the babies I deliver, their families, farm and ranch … diesel is one of the major input costs that I’m talking about, so it is a real thing.”